Super excited to see what the year holds. I'm especially curious about how AI will affect the labor market. We're simultaneously seeing companies replace people with AI and realizing the shortcomings of AI. I'm curious to see which companies will shift to using AI more and what they'll be using it for.

Expand full comment

I feel like we won't see outright layoffs in most cases -- because that just doesn't make sense for most businesses. But I think we'll see fewer positions as companies use AI to augment their existing work force and make them more productive. There's a few things that we'll need to address, and where I think most companies will trip up - the professional development pipeline. They'll want to use AI to do less skilled, routine work which historically has been done by more junior folks, and as the experienced crowd ages out that won't have people with the experience they want to replace them. This will either translate to greater reliance on AI in the long-term (and thus, stagnation) or finding a new paradigm for people development to keep the pipeline healthy.

Then there's also if companies automate too much and push too many people out of work, no one will have money to spend on things, which means the companies don't have money and the whole system topples. But whether through UBI or something similar, we'll likely self-correct at some point.

Expand full comment