Byte-Sized Ethics 2024 AI Ethics Predictions

A quick review of 2023, and 8 Byte-sized Predictions on where we are headed in 2024

Photo by Ian Schneider on Unsplash

It's hard to believe that it's the end of 2023 already. I feel like it's just started and here we are, just a few days out from the end. It's been a wild year for technology and AI, and hype around LLMs carried us through the year. Well, hype and drama because what is the technology industry without drama? From OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Microsoft's "It's complicated" relationship status, to Musk's Grok AI that’s sure a thing, to Google flubbing every major AI launch they've had this year -- we've had drama a-plenty. And because this is a bizarro world, somehow the only Big Tech company to exit the year without some kind of AI-related kerfuffle is Meta. 

Friends, we live in strange times. 

It's also been a banner for AI and Tech regulation. The EU got the AI Act through, President Biden released an Executive Order on the use of Artificial Intelligence, and NIST released the AI Risk Management Framework. We also had the first AI Safety Summit which culminated in the Bletchley Declaration, the IAPP launched the AI Governance Global Conference and the AI Governance Professional Certification, and we saw the FTC start to test out its new powers in AI enforcement against RiteAid. 

I tired myself out just typing all of that. This isn't a complete list of all the major happenings over the last 12 minutes, which goes to show just how much has happened in just a short amount of time. 

Photo by Moritz Knöringer on Unsplash

What Does 2024 Hold for Us? 

I wouldn't be much of an essayist if I didn't write predictions for next year -- it's almost a requirement at this point. But I thought I would make it fun. In the spirit of being byte-sized, I have 8 predictions for you, that are all pretty succinct and to the point. This article is like an ogre - it has layers :D

1. The Hype Machine Continues - No one can keep up right now which means a lot of misinformation and disinformation about what AI can do. Snake oil salesmen and grifters will capitalize on this misinformation to oversell and under-deliver on AI solutions. 

2. Labor Anxiety will Increase - Some big-name companies will take a big leap and replace some staff with AI, framing it as a cost-saving measure. We're already seeing movement in this direction, so just expect it to accelerate 

3. Companies are Going to (Continue) Eff It Up - Companies are going to rush to adopt LLMs and AI to be "first". As they rush, they'll overlook something critical in their workflow we'll see a huge, systemic failure from one or more companies who implemented AI haphazardly. 

4. More people will realize AI isn't the Ultimate Answer - in combination with predictions 1, 2, and 3, more folks will start to realize that AI is amazing, and still very limited and not the solution to every problem. This will happen simultaneously while the people running the hype machine will push it to a fever pitch, seeing the end coming to the AI bubble. 

5. Legislators and Regulators Will Start to Flex - Again we are seeing this already for the FTC flexing on RiteAid for their AI in their surveillance system. In the US, I expect to see the FTC continue to expand its reach in AI and Privacy, while folks in the EU will lean on clauses in the GDPR for automated processing of data and automated decision-making as a way to start to regulate AI today. 

6. AI Governance will see an Uptick - similar to what happened with privacy, the tsunami of regulation around the globe for AI Governance will see an increased demand for professionals who know the legislation and know how to govern AI. The trend will start up-market and gradually work its way down throughout the year. 

7. GenAI will Negatively Impact Elections Around the Globe - this one isn’t a fun prediction, but it’s one we need to prepare ourselves for. GenAI brings with it a lot of good, but also a lot of bad. Some of the bad is the ability to produce believeable disinformation at scale. Warnings about this election cycle in the US are already going out, and we can expect lots more. We’ll likely see more legislation and regulation about GenAI after the elections, regardless of outcomes.

8. OpenAI and others will claim to achieve AGI - Seen as the holy grail for ... well, I'm not sure why. But it is. OpenAI will release Q* and other companies will release similar technology proclaiming that they have achieved AGI -- by very carefully and specifically defining what AGI is in such a way that only their solution achieves the definition. We'll see a War of the Words as companies spar to have their definition of AI be the generally accepted definition, and therefore rights to yet again claim "First" because … reasons. But despite the hefty marketing budgets from all these companies, the AGI that launches next year will fall far short of people's expectations and will be regarded as more fluff and marketing hype than anything substantial. 

Well that’s it for 2023 folks. Thanks again for reading, and supporting me with your eye balls week after week. Byte-sized Ethics is an independent publication, and your support is what keeps me writing. If Byte-sized Ethics is valuable to you, please consider spreading some holiday cheer subscribe below. Not only do you show me you value what I’m doing right now, it also enables me to create more content in the future - like interviews, podcasts, and more. Please, give it a second thought.

Happy Holidays friends, here’s to a kickass 2024 :D